Rating results

The most part of regions have fulfilled their extensive growth potential and the economic development enters a new stage, characterized by the active region regrouping in the “risk-potential” terms

Formally a new rating showed three main processes: an intensive growth of region regrouping in the rating categories, the region increased differentiation by the integrated risk level and the renewed concentration of the total investment potential in the leading regions.

The mobility of regions has multiplied. Whereas few regions had their rating categories changed during the last years, this time 18 regions were regrouped all at once. In comparison with the previous rating three of them got a higher investment potential category and four regions raised an investment risk category. At the same time seven regions moved to a higher investment risk categories, while the Leningrad Region and the Chuvash Republic fell into a lower investment potential category. The Amur Region improved its potential and risk rating. The Pskov Region's rating had a simultaneous drop and rise of its potential and risk categories, respectively.

These positions altered mainly because most regions have already used up the resources created by their development before perestroika or by the “cleaning” effect of 1998 crisis. The potential category of the Leningrad Region, which left the “growth poles” group, tends to drop. This tendency is quite indicative and at the same time paradoxical. A number of large, “landmark” investment projects have been implemented in this region in recent years, involving actually all free manpower and the prepared investment platforms. Now this rapid further development is quite difficult. The Novgorod, Yaroslavl and some other regions were earlier in the same situation, but the active investment policy allowed them to almost completely utilize their rather limited potential. Today they require new growth impulses, a transition to a new economic development stage.

What are these new impulses? There is no uniform recipe. For example, the Belgorod Region with a high resource and productive potential, shows, that low risks enable a region to much more confidently hold its investment potential positions under otherwise equal conditions. The Belgorod Region was again assigned the 2B category of the “growth poles” of Russia in a new rating.

A new impulse example was demonstrated by the Krasnodar Territory. It was for the first time and apparently for ever included into the “basic regions” category. To a wide extent it became possible owing to a high and constantly growing tourist potential. The region is leading in Russia by this criterion, which is almost twice as much compared to Moscow, following it.

And one more negative tendency prevails. There are still no low-risk regions in Russia. For three years on end no region can reach the level of the minimal integrated investment risk (the “A” category in table 1 and in diagram 1). Although the last year rating did not record large regions in 1C and 2C high investment risk category, now they are present. The Krasnoyarsk Territory again returned to the high-risk zone. This region was constantly balancing between the moderate and high risk during all 11-year rating period. In the ratings of 1998, 2000, 2002, 2003, as well as in this year, the Krasnoyarsk Territory had a high integrated investment risk (the “C” category). At present the scale was turned again to the high risk by the strong opposition to the governor after the last elections to the legislative assembly. And when autonomous districts, though small, but high-risk ones, soon join the region, it can still lower its chances of returning to the moderate risk region category.